Cold spell to end

Well after gripping most of the country for the past 2 weeks it seems this spell of colder weather will go out with a bang today.  The Met Office has several warnings for snow issued for today as a weather front sweeps in from the west, bringing with it a forecasted 8 inches of snow to some places.  Northern England is expected to be hit hard, with inland areas forecast to bear the brunt.  The reason for the high snowfall is a wetter/milder weather front coming in from the Atlantic hitting the cold air that has dominated the country lately, and as they meet this is causing large amounts of snowfall.  The Atlantic is set to dominate from here on in, and as it pushes the cold air away the next worry we have is flooding, as this system is bringing with it a lot of rain, and as temperatures lift the massive amounts of lying snow will quickly melt.  Much milder/wetter and windier weather is forecast for next week, and for now signs show the cold potentially not returning until mid way through February, where early indications are we could be in for another big snow event.

All weather warnings can be views at the Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Snow is not expected to reach South Tyneside until after dark, and lower lying coastal areas have a chance to see more sleety rain, although obviously it will be impossible to know what falls from the sky until it starts happening.  The joy of snowcasting!!

Atlantic Hurricane Season

We take a look back at the North Atlantic Hurricane season (it is classed as being 1st June-30th November)

JUNE

Or rather, MAY! This years season was kicked off early as Tropical Storm Alberto (min pressure of 995mb)formed on the 19th May off the coast of South Carolina, followed by Tropical Storm Beryl min pressure 992mb).  Beryl began life as a Sub Tropical Storm over the north-western Caribbean sea on May 26th, before reaching peak winds of 70mph the following day when she became a full Tropical Storm.  Beryl made landfall in Jacksonville, Florida where she weakened into a Tropical Depression as she headed towards Georgia and South Carolina.

Hurricane Chris (min pressure 987mb) was next, beginning life as a Tropical Storm on the 19th June, and becoming a Hurricane on the 21st.  As the storm hit colder waters 6 hours after becoming a hurricane it weakened back to a Tropical Storm and was absorbed by a larger non-tropical storm on the 22nd June.

Following quickly on Chris’s heels came Debby (min pressure 990mb), this Tropical Storm formed on the 23rd June in the Gulf of Mexico, and made landfall in Steinhatchee, Florida, on the evening of the 26th June.  The remnants of Debby dissipated on June 30th.

JULY

Hurricane Ernesto (min pressure 980mb) started life as a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa on the 26th of July, although did not gain Tropical status during this month.

AUGUST

Tropical Depression 5 was officially formed on the 1st August (this was the storm mentioned in July) and became Tropical Storm Ernesto the following day.  The storm moved over the Carribean, bringing with it high winds and heavy rain.  By the 7th August the storm was officially declared a Hurricane, and made landfall on the 8th August as a Catagory 1 Hurricane with winds of 85mph.   After weakening into a tropical storm and moving into the Bay Of Campeche, the storm made landfall again near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico where it dumped heavy rain before moving into the Eastern Pacific where it contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Hector.

Tropical Storm Florence  (min pressure 1000mb) began life as a vigourous tropical wave off the coast of Africa on the 1st August, and by the 4th had became Tropical Depression 6.  By the next day it had strengthened to a Tropical Storm, although it soon weakened and the last advisory was issued that day by the NHC.

Tropical Storm Helene (min pressure 1004mb) began to form as a tropical wave near Cape Verde on August 6, and by the 9th had became organised enough to be named Tropical Depression 7.  The storm degenerated and on August 14th the storm moved inland.  By the 17th August the storm re-emerged into the Bay of Campeche and after rapid intensification it was immedietly named Tropical Storm Helen.  Helene moved northwest and made landfall near Tampico, Mexico on the following day.  Later that day, the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression, before dissipating early on August 19. The remnant tropical wave produced heavy rainfall in Trinidad and Tobago, and caused flooding and landslides on the Islands.

Another one that developed off the coast of Africa was Hurricane Gordan (min pressure 965mb), the low developed on the 10th August, and on the 15th August Tropical Depression 8 was born, and within 12 hours it intesified to become Tropical Storm Gordon.  After passing over the Azores Gordon developed more convection around its centre and was classed as a Hurricane on the 18th August.  Although passing directly over parts of the Azores damage was limited to power cuts and torrential rain caused some flooding.

The next storm yet again was born near the coast of Africa, a tropical wave developed over the 15/16th and headed west where it became Tropical Depression 9 on the 21st of the month.  Despite being quite disorganised, this storm was also named within 12 hours, just as Gordon was, and Tropical Storm Isaac (min pressure 968mb) was formed.  An eye formed on the 25th, and winds reached 70mph as the storm hit Haiti, causing flooding and damage to many places.  After moving back over water Isaac next made landfall in Cuba, although major damage was not expected.  Yet again Isaac was over open water, this time strenghtening into a Hurricane on the 28th August, and all eyes were suddenly focused on the Gulf of Mexico, moreso along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi as projected tracks had the storm making landfall in either state.  As it happened Isaac made landfall in Louisiana, near Port Fourchon on the 29th August, 7 years to the day since the much larger and more destructive Katrina hit the state.  Much was made of the dates, but thankfully although Isaac caused an awful lot of damage with flooding, it came nowhere near to what Katrina had done years before.

The next storm to form was Tropical Depression 10, this was a tropical wave that started producing disorganised showers between Africa and the Cape Verdi Islands on the 20th August.  2 days later it was classed as organised enough to be a Tropical Depression, and 10 was born.  On the 23rd August TD10 became Tropical Storm Joyce (min pressure 1006mb), although significant deelopment was neer a chance as the storm had such a strong wind shear to the south of the centre of circulation, and it soon dropped back to a depression, before the last advisory by the NHC was given out on the 24th August.

Hurricane Kirk was named as Tropical Depression 11 on the 28th August, and conditions at first appeared unfavourable for further development of this storm. However, the next advisory from the NHC upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Kirk, and after a further 2 days became a hurricane.  Hurricane Kirk (min pressure 970mb) reached catagory 2 status with winds of 105mph before hitting cooler waters and taking on Post Tropical status on the 2nd September.

The last storm to form during August was Hurricane Leslie (min pressure 968mb) which started as a tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic on the 27th August, taking on a westerly track.  Deep convection began around the centre on the 30th and Tropical Depression 12 was born.  Due to the warm sea surface temperatures it very quickly intensified, and became Tropical Stomr Leslie the same day.  Despite being somewhat disorganised an eye like feature was noted on September 1st, and Leslie was upgraded to a Hurricane on September 5th.  After a journey up the east coast it made landfall in Canada on the 11th September, with 70mph winds where it became extra-tropical.

SEPTEMBER

Hurricane Michael (min pressure 964mb) formed northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and on the 3rd September it was deemed organised enough to become a Tropical Depression, before becoming a Tropical Storm the next day.  It didn’t really intensify much until the %th September when it was declared a Hurricane, and within 2 hours it reached category 2.  4 hours later it reached category 3, with peak winds of 115mph.  After maintaining its intensity the storm finally succumbed to high wind shear from nearby Tropical Storm Leslie and became a convection less vortex by September 11, when it was declared a post-tropical cyclone by the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Nadine (min pressure 978mb) was next up, the system was declared a Tropical Depression on the 10th September, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm status the following day.  and was then declared a hurricane on the 15th September.  After convection weakened, an upper-level low developed, and the wind field became larger than average, Nadine transitioned into a subtropical cyclone on September 21, and then declared a post-tropical cyclone the day after.  However, by the 23rd September the system became again a Tropical Cyclone, and held this intensity until the 28th at which time it was declared a Hurricane yet again.  Due to wind shear the following day, Nadine weakened back into a tropical storm, but briefly restrengthened into a hurricane for the third time hours later. It reached its peak intensity of 90 mph on September 30, holding on to its strength for 18 hours until it again started to weaken due to increasing wind shear and cooler waters. Nadine weakened to a minimal tropical storm on October 3, when it briefly reentered warm waters, thus dropping its pressure. On October 3, Nadine was picked up by the jet stream and eventually merged with a non-tropical system.

OCTOBER

October 3rd saw the birth of Tropical Depression 15, and later that day this was upgraded to Tropical Storm Oscar (min pressure 994mb).  The storm reached peak intensity of 50mph winds on the 5th October, and early on the 6th the system was absorbed by a cold front.

Tropical Depression 16 originated North East of the Bahamas in early October, however it did not become organised enough to be declared a depression until the 11th of October, and later that same day was named Tropical Storm Patty (min pressure 994mb).  Wind shear inside the system soon weakened and the following day Patty was downgraded to  a depression, where soon after it fizzled out.

October 12th saw Tropical Storm Rafael (min pressure 969mb) organise enough to become the next named system of the year, and 3 days later was classed as a Hurricane.  By the 17th of October the system had become a strong extratropical cyclone with no threat.

The next storm to be named was the most talked about for years, Sandy (min pressure 940mb) was born on the 22nd October as Tropical Depression 18 about 320 miles south of Jamaica, and later that same day was upgraded and named Tropical Storm Sandy.  The NHC noted that “remaining nearly stationary over the warm waters of southwestern Caribbean Sea is never a good sign for this time of year.”  Sandy first made landfall in Jamaica on the 24th October as a Category 1 Hurricane, and as it continued its journey towards Cuba it was upgraded to a category 2 Hurricane with 110mph winds.  After striking Cuba the system weakened slightly before again becoming a Hurricane.  The convection organized further early on October 29,and around the same time, Sandy began transitioning into an extratropical storm early on October 29 after the western periphery of the circulation began interacting with a cold front.  Around this time much was made in the media of the “frankenstorm” that was going to hit mainland USA (the name as Halloween was right around the corner).  Sandy became post tropical and it began its journey towards the New Jersey area.  The intensity at landfall was estimated at 90 mph (150 km/h), although the strongest winds were located east and southeast of the center.  After moving ashore, Sandy continued to the west, weakening below hurricane force by the time it reached Pennsylvania. The hurricane caused widespread power outages and also dumped record snowfall on West Virginia. By 0900 UTC on October 31, the circulation degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with no discernible circulation.   Later that day, the remnants of Sandy spread into the Great Lakes, and the HPC issued its last advisory.

Tropical Storm Tony (min pressure 1000mb)  was the last of the 2012 Atlantic season, and began as a tropical wave on the 19th of October.  After meandering for a while it became a tropical Depression on the 20th, although it was expected to dissipate within days.  Tropical Depression Nineteen moved northward and became Tropical Storm Tony  October 24.  After a brief interlude as a named storm this was declared post tropical on the 25th October, when it was located south-west of the Azores.

Info from Wiki

 

 

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow…….

Well the forecast snow certainly showed up!  Sunday saw the first flurries, although we didn’t really have any lying snow until Monday/Tuesday, when we had around 2-3cms.  After that we had a dry and very cold week, temperatures in NE32 fell as low as -6.6, before the snow made a huge return yesterday!  If you follow us on twitter you will have seen our predictions from as early as last Monday that South Tyneside would see heavy snow on Friday night, and we certainly did.  Around 6 inches fell yesterday, giving a lovely covering with snow that was just perfect for snowballs!  Ireland/Wales and the Mildlands were forecast significant amounts of snow from a front coming in from the west, and a lot of people thought as this was not going to reach as far as us then we would not be in for snow; this was not the case, as our snow all came in from the North Sea.   When the North Sea machine kicks off we tend to do really well snow wise, if the conditions are right the warm sea and the cold air make a great combination for us.  We tend to do less well from frontal snow, (coming from the west) as by the time it gets over the Pennines there isn’t a lot left for us at times!

This weeks forecast will be put up tomorrow on the website, and we will also be returning to photo of the day, so if you have any photos of snow/sun whatever feel free to send them in to info@southtyneweather.co.uk

Wet and mild gives way to cold and snow?

Well we began the new year the same as we left the old one, damp, mild and quite frankly a bit depressing!  All that is set to change over the coming days as we are set for quite a cold spell.  The hold the Atlantic has had over us for quite some time has finally given way to colder air from the east, which will result in freezing temperatures, and snow is possible for most regions.  I think as this winter has been mild for the majority we will really feel the difference as the temperatures begin to drop.  Already the past 2 days have shown lower temperature readings on my weather station, after balmy temperatures 10-12c that we have regularly saw over the past weeks we are now seeing 5c, and that is set to drop to minus figures before long.  Saturday is looking to be the first chance of snow, with more possible on Sunday, and then a higher chance again on Monday.  Remember though, snow is really hard to predict, as the model runs nearer the time give us their output I will be able to predict a bit better where it will fall and how much.  Because the cold air is coming from the east/north-east it will interact with the relative warmth of the North Sea (I say relative warmth, you wouldn’t want to go for a dip!!) which can cause significant snow showers along the east coast, so i think a lot of radar watching will be taking place to see where exactly the moisture is and whether or not it will blow as far inland as to hit us.  You may have heard or read recently about the “ssw event”, ssw stands for Sudden Stratospheric Warming, and is a factor in the cold weather, a good explanation on this can be found here:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/

Also, for anybody who would like to know what exactly “the models” are that forecasts are based on, a really good explanation can be found in the info bible that is Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting

For now I am personally getting the sledges and windscreen scrapers out, and looking forward to hopefully out first real snow in quite a while.  I will leave the weather station on as much as I can over the next few days so the temperatures etc are available for anybody who would like to view them, but I am still having problems with the laptop over heating so I won’t be able to leave it on 24/7

 

First Snow of Winter

Well the first snow of this winter has fallen, and boy did it seem to take people by suprise, despite being talked about for days previously.  My personal experience of the roads wasn’t too bad, there did seem to be a lack of grit about as the roads were sheets of ice, but some people’s journey home from work yesterday were of epic proportions – some journeys took over 5 hours by all accounts.  I think questions have to be asked why as a country we seem quite unable to cope with any kind of extremeties in the weather; not that yesterday was extreme, it is winter after all, therefore generally it will be cold with the possibility of snow.  The massive rainfall we have had this year has been extreme, and I think people are starting to realise we need to be better prepared for these kinds of weather patterns.

With the cold weather looking set to last, and with more snow forecast this winter is looking set to be colder than average, which after last years quite mild one may seem out of the ordinary, but it isn’t!

 

Service resumes!

So after quite a long break hoping to get back into regular updates on here, especially over the coming months where I will be on constant snow watch!  It’s unbelievable that we are now in autumn, in all honesty I am still waiting for summer to begin…..This year’s summer was a complete washout pretty much throughout the entire UK, apart from a few days it mostly involved rain, wet and downright miserable weather.  The jet stream has been a much bandied about word this year, but this really is why we have had such unsettled conditions – the position of the jet stream has been dragging low pressure across the UK and blocking high pressure from the continent.  A recent press article on the BBC News site acknowledged that this has been the weirdest year for weather – http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19995084

Closer to home there were several more incidences of flooding in the borough after heavy/persistent rain, although less than there could have been, it was good to see workmen out clearing the drains and gulleys of leaves and debris, I am sure it made a difference to some households.  The council and Highways Agency seem to be more on the ball than they previously have with this kind of thing so hopefully this will continue and the flooding of houses will occur less.  I think it is getting to the stage now where for some people their hearts sink the minute a drop of rain falls.

Looking ahead, next week is looking dry and settled with warmer weather looking to dominate, before a blast of much cooler air hits by next weekend.  It will be quite a shock to the system to go from so warm to so cold, there is even talk of snow!!!! but confidence is quite low at the moment – a week is a very long time in the world of forecasting.  What is looking very likely as I said is for it to be very cold by next weekend, so now could be the time to get out the winter coats and the hats and gloves!

Little break!

Well as the kids are now on summer holidays I doubt I will get much of a chance to post on here, I will update as much as I can, and the weather station will still be uploading all data so do still check in!

Jet Stream!!!

Soooo, I’m guessing most people have heard of the jet stream, but aren’t entirely sure of what it does.  As mentioned previously on this site the jet stream that we mention is the one that sits over the Atlantic and beyond.  There are actually 4 jet streams around the globe, 2 in the northern hemisphere, and 2 in the south.  They flow east to west, and as has been shown recently they can stray from their more “usual” path.  The jet stream affecting us would normally at this time of year be sitting above the UK, dragging the low pressure systems above our shores and allowing high pressure (warmer and sunnier in summer) to build over us.  As the jet stream has been sat to the south of the UK the low pressure systems, bringing with them rain, and basically doom and gloom, have been dragged right across the UK, with many of these slow-moving systems dumping massive, massive amounts of rainfall, hence this ridiculously wet weather we have been having.  The jet stream moving north means England will experience much better weather as of next week, with temperatures climbing and rainfall dropping significantly.  The North West of Scotland however can expect cooler temperatures and wet weather as the jet will bring low pressure over the top of the country.

It isn’t just the UK that has been unduly affected so far this year by the jet stream, North America are currently experiencing a drought, and have had record-breaking temperatures over the past few weeks, as the position of the jet stream has allowed high pressure to build over many states, bringing severe storms with it and extremely high temperatures. Russia has experienced devastating effects from flooding after large parts inundated with rain, with many deaths reported and devastating loss of infrastructure.

Back to us, and southern England will bask in better weather to begin with as the jet shifts, fingers crossed we won’t be too far behind and summer will finally kick in just in time for the summer holidays.  Watch this space!!

Info taken from Paul Hudson @bbc